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Hard Times at Here--Are You Ready?
Hard Times at Here--Are You Ready?
The hard economic times that I--and many others--warned you about are now here. We are clearly now in the opening stages of a full-scale depression that will last a decade or longer. This news article (sent to me by SurvivalBlog reader Eric C.) .about an unemployed couple in Indiana is a microcosm of what we will be witnessing for the next decade. Take a few minutes to read it. Our pampered society is in for a rude wakening. Now, at the risk of sounding unkind and judgmental, the term "white trash" comes to mind. Note that this man in Indiana had no savings, plenty of debt, and obviously no food reserves. Also note that despite his "austere" budget on unemployment insurance, he wastes hundreds of dollars per month as he smokes cigarettes, drinks soda pop, drinks beer (in large quantity), gambles, and pays for commercial car washes. His wife still carries a Blackberry with an airtime contract. Why are they buying disposable diapers, when they could be washing cloth diapers? The article also mentions that the husband has gained 40 pounds in the year since he was laid off. Did he consider planting a vegetable garden? Or washing his own car? (Both would have saved money and provided exercise.) This couple needs a serious lesson in budget priorities. They say that they are worried about their children's school grades, yet they still have a television and XBox games. It is time for a garage sale, to sell those time-wasting gadgets. Then regularly-scheduled trips to the local library, to get their children literate! This gent is in his thirties, yet he has ruined his health with drinking, smoking, and over-eating. He and his wife seem to view military service as a last resort for their high school senior son. Well, I have a news flash for them: Both the son and the father should have enlisted! In 2006, the US military raised its maximum age of enlistment to 42. (BTW, as the economy continues to worsen, I expect the military to raise their standards considerably and eventually begin turning away large numbers of candidates, just as they did in the 1930s.) It is also noteworthy that this man is on anti-depressants. He is not alone. Consider this article that was sent to me by Karen H.: Antidepressant Use Doubles in US, Study finds. That is alarming just by itself, but just consider what will happen if and when the Schumer Hits the Fan, and all those patients run out of their medications. (And their booze, and their cigarettes, and their marijuana, and their MTV, and their Crackberry instant messages, and their chocolate, and their American Idol, and their Dunkin' Donuts, and their porn, and their meth, and their soap operas, and their "Energy" drinks.) This could get very ugly, very quickly, once so many millions of suddenly very cranky, very desperate people start roaming the streets. My suggestion is: Don't be near then, in any significant numbers. Move to hinterboonies. In summary: I had no idea that wallowing in self-pity was such exhausting, time-consuming work. At least they have a comfortable couch and recliner. This old quote mentioned by a SurvivalBlog reader sums up their situation: "The Lord does not bless the farmer who leans on his hoe." Here is my advice for SurvivalBlog readers on how to survive the currently unfolding Depression: Work cheerfully and diligently. It is slackers that find themselves unemployed first. Get debt free and stay debt free. Take on no new indebtedness, and pay down the debts you already have. Learn to distinguish essentials from non-essentials. Write a budget, and stick to it. Whittle it, as necessary, to avoid debt. Sell off your useless Beanie babies and assorted knickknacks. Increase your savings Build up your food storage Diversify your investments. Don't put all your money in one bank. Check your bank or S&L's safety rating at TheStreet.com. Check your stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and insurers, while you are at it.) Hedge your investments with some tangibles Sell off any vacation or rental properties that don't have retreat potential If you move, then it should be to a place near a secure job, and preferably to a piece of farm or ranch land that provides some self-sufficiency. Develop a second stream of income. Release yourself from your addictions. Pray fervently, and if need be, seek help. Plant a garden. Stay in shape. Be willing to accept work that is lower paying or less appealing Be charitable. Most importantly: Get right with God. (Believe, repent of your sin, confess Jesus as your savior, and be baptized.) It is time to pray hard, folks! I believe in predestination. If you are reading this, and feel convicted to make change in your life, then you are fulfilling what God has had planned for you since "before the foundations of the Earth." Forgive me for ranting, but that article about the unemployed family in Indiana got me a bit riled up. One suggestion, in closing: If you get laid-off, do not move to a relative's basement in Michigan. Instead, move to where you can find work, even if it hard, "rolled up sleeves" work. http://www.survivalblog.com/ |
Re: Hard Times at Here--Are You Ready?
Thanks TA. I read about that family a few days ago. Their lifestyle is typical for America. If I remember correctly, the father was still drinking at a bar/buying lottery tickets with his unemployment checks so it appears he still hasnt learned anything about money.
Another forum I visit has a sticky dealing with layoffs. It has some good information like: 1) You are NOT your job. Try to separate yourself from your professional identity. 2) Exercise. Every day for at least a half hour. An hour a day is better. Exercise and being in shape will help you feel good about yourself and deal with the stresses that follow a job loss. It will also help with your confidence which is vitally important when job searching. 3) Try to look as this as a gift. Take advantage of extra time to get new skills. aim for ones that 1) may be of help in a recession and 2) may be useful in a new post-recession economy 4) Volunteer. 5) If you are married...... be NICE to each other as i imagine this is one of those..... grow closer or grow apart moments. Keep it in your mind one thing that matters right now is put time into your relationships.... let's face it....you have the time. 6) Establish a new daily routine.....and that means continue to get up and get dressed as if you are going to work.......NO SLEEPING IN DURING THE WEEK.......I cannot stress this enough. Limit time online and get outside and DO something physical is so important Here is an interesting list of 40 ways to lose your future http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.co...lose-your.html |
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http://www.sbtinfo.com/article/20090...908049925/1130
URL for article about unemployed couple in Indiana. "Nearly four years ago, in search of better pay, Scott took his older brother's advice and followed him to where he had moved years before: the flatlands of Elkhart County, the country's largest manufacturer of recreational vehicles. "The RV Capital of the World," as Elkhart's leaders say. Scott got a job on a paint crew at an RV plant, and by the end of 2007 his income was $53,000. He took his son on a fishing trip. He took his family out to eat and told them to order whatever they wanted. Then gas prices soared, the economy unraveled and demand for RVs plummeted. Over the course of a year, Elkhart County's unemployment rate rose from less than 5 percent to more than 18 percent." |
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Stoneleigh: People have been asking how we see the future unfold. In case you wonder what we stand for, much of our view of what's to come can be found in the primers on the right-hand side bar. Here is an additional brief summary (in no particular order and not meant to be exhaustive) of the ground we have consistently covered here at TAE over the last year and a half, and before that elsewhere. Deflation is inevitable due to Ponzi dynamics (see From the Top of the Great Pyramid) The collapse of credit will crash the money supply as credit is the vast majority of the effective money supply Cash will be king for a long time Printing one's way out of deflation is impossible as printing cannot keep pace with credit destruction (the net effect is contraction) Debt will become a millstone around people's necks and bankruptcy will no longer be possible at some point In the future the consequences of unpayable debt could include indentured servitude, debtor's prison or being drummed into the military Early withdrawls from pension plans will be prevented and almost all pension plans will eventually default We will see a systemic banking crisis that will result in bank runs and the loss of savings Prices will fall across the board as purchasing power collapses Real estate prices are likely to fall by at least 90% on average (with local variation) The essentials will see relative price support as a much larger percentage of a much smaller money supply chases them We are headed eventually for a bond market dislocation where nominal interest rates will shoot up into the double digits Real interest rates will be even higher (the nominal rate minus negative inflation) This will cause a tsunami of debt default which is highly deflationary Government spending (all levels) will be slashed, with loss of entitlements and inability to maintain infrastructure Finance rules will be changed at will and changes applied retroactively (eg short selling will be banned, loans will be called in at some point) Centralized services (water, electricity, gas, education, garbage pick-up, snow-removal etc) will become unreliable and of much lower quality, or may be eliminated entirely Suburbia is a trap due to its dependence on these services and cheap energy for transport People with essentially no purchasing power will be living in a pay-as-you-go world Modern healthcare will be largely unavailable and informal care will generally be very basic Universities will go out of business as no one will be able to afford to attend Cash hoarding will continue to reduce the velocity of money, amplifying the effect of deflation The US dollar will continue to rise for quite a while on a flight to safety and as dollar-denominated debt deflates Eventually the dollar will collapse, but that time is not now (and a falling dollar does not mean an expanding money supply, ie inflation) Deflation and depression are mutually reinforcing in a positive feedback spiral, so both are likely to be protracted There should be no lasting market bottom until at least the middle of the next decade, and even then the depression won't be over Much capital will be revealed as having been converted to waste during the cheap energy/cheap credit years Export markets will collapse with global trade and exporting countries will be hit very hard Herding behaviour is the foundation of markets The flip side of the manic optimism we saw in the bubble years will be persistent pessimism, risk aversion, anger, scapegoating, recrimination, violence and the election of dangerous populist extremists A sense of common humanity will be lost as foreigners and those who are different are demonized There will be war in the labour markets as unempoyment skyrockets and wages and benefits are slashed We are headed for resource wars, which will result in much resource and infrastructure destruction Energy prices are first affected by demand collapse, then supply collapse, so that prices first fall and then rise enormously Ordinary people are unlikely to be able to afford oil products AT ALL within 5 years Hard limits to capital and energy will greatly reduce socioeconomic complexity (see Tainter) Political structures exist to concentrate wealth at the centre at the expense of the periphery, and this happens at all scales simultaneously Taxation will rise substantially as the domestic population is squeezed in order for the elite to partially make up for the loss of the ability to pick the pockets of the whole world through globalization Repressive political structures will arise, with much greater use of police state methods and a drastic reduction of freedom The rule of law will replaced by the politics of the personal and an economy of favours (ie endemic corruption) |
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Learned a long time ago; "If you economize when you don't have to economize, when you have to economize you won't have to economize!" Worked for me.
I didn't need no stinken' list to figure that out. |
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Left private industry and took a government job 10 years ago so I would be one of the last to be layed off when the Depression came. Still I'm not ready, now that I fully understand what it will take to 'survive'. Too old, too tired, no one survives forever, at a certain point it becomes a game to postpone the inevitable . A young man's game really. I realize I spend too much time worrying about the inevitable and not enough time just enjoying today. Those of us who lived the second half of the 20th century in America had a good life, this century is just Epilogue.. They say acceptance is the most important part of any great Life Change. Nothing lasts forever, if I was a younger man in my 20's/30's I'd already be on a homestead, learning how to live off the land. But there comes a certain point where you go down with the ship, with some dignity... Once you accept the inevitable the panic is gone. Take each day as a gift as it comes. Til one day it doesn't... That attitude may not extend my time on this blue ship, but sure make the ride more enjoyable.. Peaceful, really... What other generation had a Bob Dylan to put everything in perspective? |
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BS article, - blames the victim for the economic meltdown and the annihilation of the middle class.
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Cash will be king? BWA HA HA HA HA . I mean come on. Oil is going to get more expensive, but we will be in deflation? Ahh okay man , whatever you say:4_1_72: You know,as far as im concerned , true deflation would be a good thing. If as this bullsh*t article states, "cash will be king" than my wife and kids and i will do just fine. I have more than 3 times the cash than i do PMs. If what this guy is saying comes to fruition , than one could only assume that his or her cash would command a hefty interest rate at the local bank. Works for me, except we all know that is not going to happen. How the hell can cash be king , if it isn't worth anything?I have 120,000 dollars in the bank,and guess what? The bank doesn't give me jack sh*t for it. You know why, because it aint worth nothin that's why. Complete utter bullsh*t , the whole article. Everbody on this website with a brain knows damn well that the PTB will not allow cash to be king. If not for my married with children status, i would drastically reduce my cash holdings. But as a married man with a somewhat understandable spouse, 30 percent in Gold and Silver is about all my situation allows for. These morons on the survival websites know little to nothing about hard money , sorry but the mad max bullsh*t aint gonna happen for a long long time, if at all. The much more likely scenario will be a slow bleed through currency debasement . YOU KNOW , LIKE THE LAST 90 YEARS HAS SHOWN US! |
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The bank doesn't "give you jack shit for it", not because it's worthless, but because the Fed has set interest rates low to keep US bonds payable. |
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What AgFinger said. Digital numbers are not cash and if there's a banking holiday or some national emergency (infrastructure collapse) then all that banked fiat is useless even if the numbers still exist. I wish I could find that Antal Fekete article that explained this so clearly.
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If that happens, than one must also assume that the 150,000 digital dollars that represent what is left of my mortgage MUST ALSO EVAPORATE! Sounds good to me. I lose the 120 , but gain the 150. Ill take that deal. But we know that is not going to happen. You can't erase the digital dollars on one side of the ledger but not the other. |
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You will have the short end of the stick. :signs14: |
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So if we are to assume as these types of articles state, that the value of the bonds will collapse, than so must the paper that represnts those bonds also collapse. How can you have it both ways. If the bonds collapse, so do the dollars that represent the bonds. |
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If i don't pay it off, than who will? |
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If the banks "don't pay shit", (your words), then why bother having the money there in the first place? If I was going to keep that much cash, (and I wouldn't), then I'd invest in a hidden fireproof safe and keep it all in 10's and 20's.... |
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Hard times fell on me and mine a couple of months ago.
My job ran out at the end of July, which I knew was coming. We had saved up enough money so that I could go back to college full time and try for a Masters degree in Mathematics. Alas in August I was diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Now the medical bills are coming. We've been able to keep up so far out of cash flow, but I'm sure much of my college money will go towards them before this is all over. Of course I could still end up dead from this, but I'm planning on surviving and the odds are in my favor. Wish me luck! |
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I'm not trying to disrespect you, I just have no faith that a collapse of the banking system and the loss (or at least the loss of easy access to) individual wealth held as deposits will be paralled by the elimination of personal debt. Not unless a Fight Club scenario unfolds and the records of said debt are eliminated. |
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We were somewhat wise during our time of prosperity, therefore we are not (yet) in dire straights during our time of troubles. Worse comes to worse and we could live for a year with no income. After that though things would get ugly. Well, uglier than they already are when I look in the mirror that is :) |
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How can you seperate the two? Isn't this the crux of what GIM is all about. Isn't that why we all come here? The dollar is nothing but debt. If the debt goes bad , than so does the dollar. I have every reason to believe that the debt will eventually go to zero in the form of default. I think most of you would agree. So that being said, how the hell can a piece of paper that represents failed debt BE KING? Sorry guys, sounds like BS to me. |
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Just keep a couple thousand in the safe for apperances sake :) |
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Well you get the point. Sometimes life is a tradeoff. I could probably have all of my assets in Gold and Silver and cash buried in the backyard, but i would probably not have a real happy marriage as a result:ok: |
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